Airstrip One

The price of Britain's support - 3rd March 2003, 00.05

We usually hear that Britain has reaped great power and influence from its principled stand with the United States. In a different take, Nikolas Gvosdev and Ray Takeyh, argue that Britain has lost its role in continental Europe as a mediating power between Europe and the United States. Great Britain is now discredited as France and Germany have found no support for their policies from their erstwhile partner.

However, such a simplistic analysis fails to account for Russia’s essential motives. President Vladimir Putin has sensed in the current trans-Atlantic crisis an opportunity to displace Britain as the mediating power within the West. In turn, Washington is increasingly viewing Moscow — not London — as its principal liaison to France and Germany as a vote in the Security Council draws near. And it is willing to excuse Russiaia’s public diplomacy (e. g. Ivanov’s statements) in return for private action (Alexander Voloshin’s hush-hush visit this past week to Washington being a prime example).

Putin is the first President who has fully adjusted to Russia's post-imperial status and who places his country firmly in the West. through his cooperation with the States and his diplomatic ties to the continental powers, Russia temporarily bridges the rift in the West whilst Britain is reduced to "military wingman".

No one should be surprised that Putin has borrowed a page from the Nixon-Kissinger triangular diplomacy playbook that enabled the United States to improve relations with both Moscow and Beijing during the 1970s. In a similar manner, by cementing ties with both the United States and the continental European powers, Putin hopes to replace Blair as the “indispensable European” that all powers turn to for the mediation of trans-Atlantic conflicts.

After all, the goal of Russian foreign policy, as Ivanov observed, is the “development of a constructive partnership between my country, Europe and the United States” that is “united by a common responsibility for maintaining peace and stability in the vast Euro-Atlantic area.” In such an arrangement, Putin hopes that Moscow, not London, would become the vice-chairman of the board.

Putin’s triangular diplomacy offers the Bush administration an excellent opportunity to reshape trans-Atlantic relations in the 21st century. NATO’s big tent can no longer hold all of its members in lockstep unison now that the Soviet threat has evaporated. London is well poised to remain America’s military wingman. But the United States also needs an interlocutor for the other major powers within Europe who have grown increasingly skeptical about America’s intentions.

Putin’s Russia is poised to step into this role. The groundwork is being laid in quiet negotiations for a “reluctant” acquiescence to the United States’ plans for regime change in Iraq.

Will a consequence of Blair's support for the United States be a diminution of Britain's influence due to perceptions of this country as 'Bush's poodle', existing military capabilities notwithstanding?